Summary Analysis for each U. S. Economic Indicator by :
Jim Moranville
- Jobs Added
Trump during the first two years of his term added an average of 2,416,000 jobs annually. This is LESS THAN the average number of jobs added by Obama in his last 4-year term with an annual average of 2,588,750, both of Clinton terms (1st term being the highest of all other presidents: 2,913,250 annual average, and Reagan’s 2nd term with a 2,697,750 annual average.
- Unemployment Rate
Trump during the first two years of his term lowered the unemployment rate from 4.7% to 3.9% or only by 0.8%. Obama, on the other hand, decreased the rate from 7.3% (during the recession the unemployment rate increased to 9.9% his first year) to 4.7%, which is a decrease of 2.2% from the height of the recession. Obama had the highest declline in this rate since before Reagan.
- GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
Trump during the first two years of his term has an annual GDP average of 2.65%, which is the highest since Clinton’s two terms
(Clinton’s 2nd term has the highest average of 4.45%). Reagan also had two terms with a higher annual average.
- Inflation
Trump during the first two years of his term has total inflation of 4.00%, an average of 2.00%, which is comparably higher than
Obama’s last term at 5.10% for four years, an average of 1.28%.
- Stock Market
The stock market is normally higher every year. The stock market should be analyzed not by how high it is, but how it increases over time as a percentage. Investors look at the percent increase of their investments over a period of time, normally a year. So Trump’s claim that the stock market never has been as high as it is now is MISLEADING. As you can see, the first two years of Trump’s 1st term yielded an annual average of 9.0% increase, versus an annual average of 12.5% for both of Obama’s terms, and an annual average of 20.3% for both of Clinton’s terms, and an annual average of 13.1% for both of Reagan’s terms. So Trump’s average annual increase of the stock market is LESS THAN what these predecessors experienced. AND, at the time of each of their presidential terms, the stock market was at an “all-time high” for each of his predecessors in most cases!
- Overall Summary
As you can see, all of the listed factors DO NOT substantiate Trump’s claim of “the best economy ever”!! IN FACT, these economic indicators put Trump’s economy in perspective – but DEFINITELY NOT THE BEST!
Mouse over precious and next arrow at bottom of table to scroll through the details.
Summary Table | |||||||||||||
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Year | Jobs Added (1,000s) | Unemployment Rate (December) | GDP Growth | Inflation (Dec. Year over Year) | Stock Market (DOW Jones @ End of Year) | What Happened | During Presidential Term | ||||||
Average Jobs Added Annually during Term | Unemployment Rate Change from Prior Term | GDP Growth Annual Average | Annual Inflation Average (Dec.) during Term | Stock Market Average Annual Increase during Term | Presidential Term | ||||||||
2020 | ? | Trump 1st | Republican | ||||||||||
2019 | 1143 | ? | |||||||||||
2018 | 2679 | 3.90% | 2.90% | 1.90% | 23327.46 | Trump tax cuts . | 2416 | (0.8%) | 2.65% | 2.0% | 9.0% | ||
2017 | 2153 | 4.10% | 2.40% | 2.10% | 24719.22 | Dollar weakened | |||||||
2016 | 2318 | 4.70% | 1.60% | 2.10% | 19762.6 | Presidential race | 2589 | (3.2%) | 2.20% | 1.3% | 12.7% | Obama 2nd | Democrat |
2015 | 2729 | 5.00% | 2.90% | 0.70% | 17425.03 | Natural rate | |||||||
2014 | 3006 | 5.60% | 2.50% | 0.80% | 17823.07 | Unemployment at 2007 levels. | |||||||
2013 | 2302 | 6.70% | 1.80% | 1.50% | 16576.66 | Stocks up 30%. Long term=50% of unemployed. | |||||||
2012 | 2174 | 7.90% | 2.20% | 1.70% | 13104.1 | QE. 10-year rate at 200-year low. Fiscal cliff. | 58 | 0.6% | 0.98% | 2.2% | 12.3% | Obama 1st | Democrat |
2011 | 2075 | 8.50% | 1.60% | 3.00% | 12217.6 | 26 months of job losses by July. Debt ceiling crisis. Iraq War ended . | |||||||
2010 | 1035 | 9.30% | 2.60% | 1.50% | 11577.5 | Obama tax cuts. | |||||||
2009 | -5053 | 9.90% | -2.50% | 2.70% | 10428.1 | ARRA. Min wage $7.25. Jobless benefits extended | |||||||
2008 | -3552 | 7.30% | -0.10% | 0.10% | 8776.4 | Min. wage = $6.55/ hour. Financial crisis | 553 | 1.9% | 2.05% | 2.5% | (4.7%) | George W. Bush 2nd | Republican |
2007 | 1141 | 5.00% | 1.90% | 4.10% | 13264.8 | EU became #1 economy. | |||||||
2006 | 2100 | 4.40% | 2.90% | 2.50% | 12463.2 | Expansion. | |||||||
2005 | 2524 | 4.90% | 3.50% | 3.40% | 10717.5 | Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention Act. Katrina | |||||||
2004 | 2039 | 5.40% | 3.80% | 3.30% | 10783 | Expansion. | -20 | 1.5% | 2.35% | 2.3% | (0.0%) | George W. Bush 1st | Republican |
2003 | 117 | 5.70% | 2.90% | 1.90% | 10453.9 | JGTRRA | |||||||
2002 | -509 | 6.00% | 1.70% | 2.40% | 8341.6 | War on Terror | |||||||
2001 | -1725 | 5.70% | 1.00% | 1.60% | 10021.6 | Bush tax cuts. 9/11 attacks | |||||||
2000 | 1936 | 3.90% | 4.10% | 3.40% | 10788 | NASDAQ hit record high . | 2893 | (1.5%) | 4.45% | 2.4% | 16.8% | Clinton 2nd | Democrat |
1999 | 3179 | 4.00% | 4.80% | 2.70% | 11497.1 | Euro. Serbian airstrike | |||||||
1998 | 3048 | 4.40% | 4.50% | 1.60% | 9181.4 | LTCMÂ crisis | |||||||
1997 | 3407 | 4.70% | 4.40% | 1.70% | 7908.3 | Min wage $5.85 | |||||||
1996 | 2824 | 5.40% | 3.80% | 3.30% | 6448.3 | Welfare reform | 2913 | (2.0%) | 3.33% | 2.8% | 23.8% | Clinton 1st | Democrat |
1995 | 2157 | 5.60% | 2.70% | 2.50% | 5117.1 | Expansion | |||||||
1994 | 3852 | 5.50% | 4.00% | 2.70% | 3833.4 | School to Work Act | |||||||
1993 | 2820 | 6.50% | 2.80% | 2.70% | 3754.1 | Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act | |||||||
1992 | 1169 | 7.40% | 3.50% | 2.90% | 3301.1 | NAFTAÂ drafted | 650 | 2.1% | 2.25% | 4.2% | 13.1% | George H. W. Bush | Republican |
1991 | -837 | 7.30% | -0.10% | 3.10% | 3168.83 | Desert Storm. Min wage $4.25 | |||||||
1990 | 331 | 6.30% | 1.90% | 6.10% | 2633.66 | Recession | |||||||
1989 | 1938 | 5.40% | 3.70% | 4.60% | 2753.2 | Reforms made to address S&L Crisis | |||||||
1988 | 3237 | 5.30% | 4.20% | 4.40% | 2168.24 | Fed raised rate | 2698 | (2.0%) | 3.85% | 3.4% | 19.7% | Ronald Reagan 2nd | Republican |
1987 | 3152 | 5.70% | 3.50% | 4.40% | 1938.83 | Black Monday | |||||||
1986 | 1900 | 6.60% | 3.50% | 1.10% | 1895.95 | Tax cuts | |||||||
1985 | 2502 | 7.00% | 4.20% | 3.80% | 1546.67 | Expansion | |||||||
1984 | 3877 | 7.30% | 7.20% | 3.90% | 1211.57 | 1291 | 0.1% | 3.13% | 5.1% | 6.4% | Ronald 1st | Republican | |
1983 | 3459 | 8.30% | 4.60% | 3.80% | 1258.64 | Reagan increased military spending | |||||||
1982 | -2124 | 10.80% | -1.80% | 3.80% | 1046.54 | Job Training Partnership Act. Garn-St.Germain Act. | |||||||
1981 | -48 | 8.50% | 2.50% | 8.90% | 875 | Reagan tax cuts. Min wage $3.35 |
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