The presidential election is over in that we have already voted. But for state and local election officials, they have a little more work ahead of them as they work through the final batch of provisional ballots and prepare for final certification of the full results.
Yes, Joe Biden already won. Here’s what else is happening.
As of 9:30 AM today, Donald Trump managed to close the gap… By a mere four votes, as President-elect Joe Biden maintains a 2.76% lead over Trump. County election offices have begun to count and record the final batch of about 66,500 provisional ballots left to process. Since we know that these provisional ballots are same-day registrations, and since we know these same-day registrations show a very slight Democratic plurality with a high number of Nonpartisans, it’s possible Trump narrows the gap a little more, but it’s highly unlikely he even shrinks Biden’s margin of victory below 2%, let alone reverses it entirely.
Instead, the mystery and speculation move to the Nevada Legislature. But since State Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro (D-Las Vegas) now holds an 862 vote (or 1.32%) lead over April Becker (R-Las Vegas), she remains firmly on track for reelection in SD 6. SD 5 remains closer, but Kristee Watson (D-Henderson) gained enough ground earlier this week that she now holds a 202 vote (or 0.32%) lead over Carrie Buck (R-Henderson), so I still consider Watson a slight favorite to hold this seat for Democrats. While Democrats also picked up some ground earlier this week in their Assembly races, they remain on track to lose three seats (AD’s 4 and 37 in Clark County, and AD 31 in Washoe County) in that chamber.
Jumping back to the federal level, Rep. Steven Horsford (D-North Las Vegas) holds a 5% lead over Jim Marchant (R) and Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) holds a 3.81% lead over Dan Rodimer (R). Both are sure bets for reelection, though both are set to return to a 117th Congress with a slimmer Democratic House majority and closely divided Senate.
Next week, we’ll be back with more installments of our “Hindsight 2020” series, including a deeper dive into the actual numbers once all the ballots are counted. Under state law, county election offices should finish processing provisional ballots by the close of business today.